You're STEEL the one...
Precious metals (gold and silver), copper, aluminum and other metals are doing extremely well. Steel and some of the emerging markets are also doing very well. These types of moves typically occur when we have (or expect) inflation in the system.
It's not a prediction of higher inflation - simply, this is what's working now. I'm not interested in what's supposed to work, or what "should" work in the future. We play for today. We play to win.
When commodities are moving, it always reminds me of one of my favorite movies, "Trading Places." If you're not familiar with commodities, here is how Mortimer and Randolph Duke explained it to Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy) in the movie:
"We are here to try to explain to you, what it is we do here.
We are commodities brokers, William. Now, what are commodities?
Commodities are agricultural products.
Like coffee, that you had for breakfast. Wheat, which is used to make bread.
Pork bellies, which is used to make bacon...which you might find in a bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwich.
Then there are other commodities like...frozen orange juice...and gold.
Though, of course, gold doesn't grow on trees, like oranges.
Now, some of our clients are speculating that the price of gold will rise in the future. We have other clients who are speculating that the price of gold is going to fall. They've placed their orders with us and we buy or sell their gold for them."
"Tell him the good part, Mortimer."
"The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money...
...Duke & Duke get the commissions."
"Well, what do you think, Valentine?"
"Sounds to me like you guys are a couple of bookies."
Billy Ray Valentine was right -- trading commodities used to be very expensive. But now we can participate in the commodity markets through exchange traded funds. ETFs have opened up new markets to many investors. The only way to play (in the past) was to pay a couple of high-priced bookies like Duke and Duke.
When the US stock market is not working, it doesn't mean we take a vacation. There are plenty of other things to be doing right now with your money. If you want to get in the game, give us a call at 732-223-9000 (extension 2) and will be happy to set up a time where we can talk.
Till next time,
Tom
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